2 points that i forgot to mention in my earlier response.
7) Talibans are the most powerful faction on the Afghan political and social landscape. There are many warlords but none is as organized and powerful as taliban. Given all this influence that they enjoy it is widely believed that they will either form the government post US withdrawal or will potentially be a major part of any future coalition in Afghanistan. Historically Taliban have been friendly towards Pakistan. They have helped Islamabad keeping an eye on indian funded proxies like TTP and BLA/BRA. By giving US basing rights to keep taps on taliban would antagonise a potentially pro-pakistan future government in Afghanistan. This could drive them towards India in order to punish Pakistan. Such a situation will be a horrible mess for Pakistan's policy makers. And definitely this possibility would not have escaped their strategic calculus.
8) And at last Iran won't be happy as well. Pakistan historically has played a meditating role between two major powers of Islamic world, Saudi Arab and Iran. Given the influence US has on Saudi Arabia and the cordial relations KSA enjoys with US, kingdom could use these bases to stir up sectarian violence in balochistan as well as could act on its policy of bleeding Iran. This would make pakistan lose its mediating role and the situation will not sit well particularly with the patriotic shia community of Pakistan. It will also hurt PM IKs policy of reforming relations with an important islamic neighbour Iran.
This is an extremely messed up view from the author. This is totally opposite to what the startigic community of this country thinks. To put things in prospective let me state some facts
1)Pakistan has historically been an ally of United states. But given this Pakistan's economic woes have not been listened to. We have stayed in FATFs grey list before and this was the time when US was highly engaged in Afghanistan. If we were unable or they were unwilling to give us economic incentives and insisted on providing Aid back then, then it is totally impossible that we will secure any ecnomic benefit now when they are least interested in Afghanistan.
2) It is true that Pakistan and china dont want the United states to leave the Afghanistan without any kind of political settlements. This unfortunate situation will lead to violence in Afghanistan that now seems inevitable. But that doesn't mean that Pakistan don't want US to leave. We want them to leave but not without a just political settlement.
3) Giving US a base in Pakistan will also attract the ire of Chinese. Because these bases that US want will be in the regions of balochistan due to thier strategic importance vis a vis Afghanistan and close proximity to durand line, Chinese will have nightmares that its arch enemy is sitting in a region which is an important part of CPEC which in turn is the flagship project of BRI.
4) When american drones will fly from pakistan to kill all these Taliban leaders that the US is trying to negotiate with now in doha, these people will turn all their attention to the country that will provide them bases adding to the external security woes of Pakistan and diverting its attention from hegemonic eastern neighbour.
5) What Americans could possibly achieve from these bases when they have achieved nothing while sitting in Afghanistan. There are three main aspects used in Air warfare. Identify, clear the area, and hold. Using drones to identify targets is extremely difficult. There are numerous reports that during the peak of drone strikes in Pakistan during the Obama era CIA and drone opertives didn't even knew whom they were targeting. Clearing means neutralizing the target. This part is achievable and reletaively easy but the last aspect to hold the area is further difficult because of absence of friendly forces on ground. You will neutralise the targets in order to clear the area but after some time u will see the same non friendly elements roaming in that area.
And Finally
6) And finally the military equipment that was given to us came at the price of losing some independence to use them. US made pakistan pay for a team of observers that ensures on the behest of US government that Pakistan complies with the end user restrictions on F 16. This is just one example. American alliance has come at a great cost for us. 130 billion dollars lose to the economy, more then 70k military and non military casualties, extremely negative image of Pakistan.
These are the reasons that we Absolutely should not allow US boots or drones on Pakistani grounds.
2 points that i forgot to mention in my earlier response.
7) Talibans are the most powerful faction on the Afghan political and social landscape. There are many warlords but none is as organized and powerful as taliban. Given all this influence that they enjoy it is widely believed that they will either form the government post US withdrawal or will potentially be a major part of any future coalition in Afghanistan. Historically Taliban have been friendly towards Pakistan. They have helped Islamabad keeping an eye on indian funded proxies like TTP and BLA/BRA. By giving US basing rights to keep taps on taliban would antagonise a potentially pro-pakistan future government in Afghanistan. This could drive them towards India in order to punish Pakistan. Such a situation will be a horrible mess for Pakistan's policy makers. And definitely this possibility would not have escaped their strategic calculus.
8) And at last Iran won't be happy as well. Pakistan historically has played a meditating role between two major powers of Islamic world, Saudi Arab and Iran. Given the influence US has on Saudi Arabia and the cordial relations KSA enjoys with US, kingdom could use these bases to stir up sectarian violence in balochistan as well as could act on its policy of bleeding Iran. This would make pakistan lose its mediating role and the situation will not sit well particularly with the patriotic shia community of Pakistan. It will also hurt PM IKs policy of reforming relations with an important islamic neighbour Iran.
This is an extremely messed up view from the author. This is totally opposite to what the startigic community of this country thinks. To put things in prospective let me state some facts
1)Pakistan has historically been an ally of United states. But given this Pakistan's economic woes have not been listened to. We have stayed in FATFs grey list before and this was the time when US was highly engaged in Afghanistan. If we were unable or they were unwilling to give us economic incentives and insisted on providing Aid back then, then it is totally impossible that we will secure any ecnomic benefit now when they are least interested in Afghanistan.
2) It is true that Pakistan and china dont want the United states to leave the Afghanistan without any kind of political settlements. This unfortunate situation will lead to violence in Afghanistan that now seems inevitable. But that doesn't mean that Pakistan don't want US to leave. We want them to leave but not without a just political settlement.
3) Giving US a base in Pakistan will also attract the ire of Chinese. Because these bases that US want will be in the regions of balochistan due to thier strategic importance vis a vis Afghanistan and close proximity to durand line, Chinese will have nightmares that its arch enemy is sitting in a region which is an important part of CPEC which in turn is the flagship project of BRI.
4) When american drones will fly from pakistan to kill all these Taliban leaders that the US is trying to negotiate with now in doha, these people will turn all their attention to the country that will provide them bases adding to the external security woes of Pakistan and diverting its attention from hegemonic eastern neighbour.
5) What Americans could possibly achieve from these bases when they have achieved nothing while sitting in Afghanistan. There are three main aspects used in Air warfare. Identify, clear the area, and hold. Using drones to identify targets is extremely difficult. There are numerous reports that during the peak of drone strikes in Pakistan during the Obama era CIA and drone opertives didn't even knew whom they were targeting. Clearing means neutralizing the target. This part is achievable and reletaively easy but the last aspect to hold the area is further difficult because of absence of friendly forces on ground. You will neutralise the targets in order to clear the area but after some time u will see the same non friendly elements roaming in that area.
And Finally
6) And finally the military equipment that was given to us came at the price of losing some independence to use them. US made pakistan pay for a team of observers that ensures on the behest of US government that Pakistan complies with the end user restrictions on F 16. This is just one example. American alliance has come at a great cost for us. 130 billion dollars lose to the economy, more then 70k military and non military casualties, extremely negative image of Pakistan.
These are the reasons that we Absolutely should not allow US boots or drones on Pakistani grounds.